Saturday's 4:30PM ET Game
Baltimore @ Denver
The Broncos are 13-3 all time in home playoff games. But how big of an effect does Denver's thin air have on opponents, really? "When I played there," ex-Eagles safety Brian Dawkins recalled this week, "... our trainer tried to tell us, 'It's a mind thing. The altitude is a mind thing. Don't think about it.' But when I got out there and we started playing and we got behind -- and that's the key -- it's not a mind thing. It's a lung thing. The lungs don't get enough oxygen." Combine home-field advantage with Peyton Manning's hurry-up offense, and there's reason to believe this game could get out of hand quickly if the Ravens play anything like they did against the Broncos in Week 15. Baltimore was at home for that one, yet still allowed Denver to grab a 17-0 first-half lead en route to a dominant 34-17 victory. ... Manning is masterful at identifying advantageous matchups, and he attacked Ravens RCB Cary Williams relentlessly in the aforementioned meeting. Z receiver Eric Decker was the beneficiary, securing eight passes for 133 yards and a touchdown. On the score, Decker blew by Williams' jam as Manning play-actioned to Knowshon Moreno and found Decker open deep behind Williams from 51 yards out. ... Demaryius Thomas was quiet in the Week 15 matchup (four catches, 13 yards), but he's Manning's hottest receiver with a team-high 16 grabs for 224 yards and two touchdowns in Denver's last two games. In the Ravens' nickel package, special teamer Chykie Brown plays left corner with Corey Graham covering the slot, in the old Lardarius Webb role. Brown is playing extensively only due to injuries and is just as vulnerable as Williams in coverage. Both Denver wideouts can have big Divisional Round games.
Since starting running back Willis McGahee tore his MCL in November, Moreno has admirably stepped into the Joseph Addai role in Manning's offense. An underwhelming talent -- much like Addai -- Moreno has cleared 4.0 yards per carry in just one of his last five starts. But he's an asset in pass protection and has displayed reliable workhorse capability by handling 25 touches per game without a fumble since the McGahee injury. Although Moreno is unlikely to break off big plays in the run game, he is a chain-moving grinder willing to work for hard yards between the tackles. Moreno was the unsung hero of Denver's Week 15 win over Baltimore, heating up the Ravens for 115 yards and a touchdown on 21 attempts (5.48 YPC). ... Slot receiver Brandon Stokley and tight ends Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen are role players in the Manning attack; essentially checkdown receivers for whom plays are rarely designed. Sure-handed Stokley finished the regular season with just two drops on 58 targets. Tamme is a "move" tight end who often aligns in the slot. Dreessen is Denver's in-line tight end. He's an impact run blocker and caught five touchdown passes in 2012, four of which came inside the opponent's ten-yard line.
Perhaps the biggest key to Denver's Week 15 dominance of Baltimore was slot corner Chris Harris' elimination of slot receiver Anquan Boldin. In addition to returning a 98-yard pick six, Harris held Boldin catch-less on six targets, frustrating the veteran to the point that Boldin was penalized for unnecessary roughness in the second half. It was Boldin?s first game without a reception since '05. Look for the Broncos to employ the same strategy this weekend. ... While Harris tracked Boldin on virtually every Week 15 passing down, Denver used Champ Bailey to shadow deep threat Torrey Smith. Before exiting with a third-quarter concussion, Smith managed one catch for 14 yards on three targets. Bailey has been a legit shutdown corner this season, and the Broncos' first-round bye should freshen the 34-year-old's legs for Saturday's game. ... Will Joe Flacco have open receivers in the Divisional Round? The odds appear to be against it. Flacco tends to hold onto the ball too long, make poor decisions, and simply not move the offense when Smith and Boldin don't get separation. Indecisive quarterbacking would be bad news for Baltimore against a Denver defense that led the NFL in sacks and has a pass rusher in Von Miller who is capable of single-handedly ruining an offense. This is a very difficult matchup for the Ravens' pass game.
During the regular season, the Broncos allowed the most touchdowns and seventh most receiving yards in the league to tight ends. If Denver's second-ranked defense has one soft spot, it's coverage over the middle and down the seam. Ravens tight end Dennis Pitta capitalized for seven catches, 125 yards, and two touchdowns in the Week 15 game, securing the first score on a deep seam route and the second with a trio of broken tackles after a quick curl, taking Flacco's short pass 61 yards to the house. Beyond Ray Rice, Pitta is the likeliest Ravens skill-position player to give Denver trouble. ... In large part because Baltimore fell behind so fast, Rice was bottled up and underutilized en route to 41 yards on 15 touches (2.73 average) in the Week 15 Ravens-Broncos game. Playcaller Jim Caldwell has been committed to featuring Rice in Baltimore's two meaningful games since, and he's responded with 275 total yards and a touchdown against the Giants and Colts. As is always the case for running backs, critical to keeping Rice involved is a competitive effort both on the field and scoreboard. The Ravens can't afford to let Denver grab a commanding first-half lead. ... It seems like a long shot, but if Baltimore is the early aggressor in this game, No. 2 back Bernard Pierce has flashed ability to be an X-factor and impact player. Pierce has 387 yards on his last 61 carries (6.34 YPC), and he hasn?t fumbled once on 128 rookie-year touches.
Score Prediction: Broncos 30, Ravens 23
Saturday's 8:00PM ET Game
Green Bay @ San Francisco
49ers defensive end Justin Smith is expected to return for the Divisional Round from a partially torn triceps in his left arm. Smith suffered the tear on Dec. 16 and will be just over three weeks removed from the injury on Saturday night. His effectiveness is a big question mark. Although Smith's 2012 numbers don't jump off the stat sheet, he's a critical puzzle piece on the 49ers' defense, attracting double teams for Aldon Smith to essentially rush quarterbacks unblocked off right end. It's no coincidence that Aldon is sack-less during the nine quarters Justin has missed. The Aldon-Justin tag-team combo is the Niners' primary means of generating pass rush, so there are big implications from this injury as San Francisco attempts to contain scorching-hot Aaron Rodgers. ... Rodgers has completed 102 of his last 149 passes (68.5 percent) for 1,310 yards (8.79 YPA), 11 scores, and no interceptions. He hasn't been picked off in 177 throws. The 49ers' top-four run defense is capable of shutting down Green Bay's DuJuan Harris-led ground game, but putting breaks on Rodgers' aerial assault may be impossible if San Francisco coordinator Vic Fangio can't bring any heat. There may not be an aspect of Pack-Niners that has a greater impact on the game's outcome than Justin Smith's ability or inability to play effectively through his arm tear.
Fangio's defense doesn't mix coverages much. It's a straightaway scheme that jams receivers on the perimeter, is immovable up front, and closes at inside linebacker as if Navorro Bowman and Patrick Willis were shot out of a cannon. Carlos Rogers will cover the slot on all nickel downs, with Chris Culliver at left corner and Tarell Brown on the right. A matchup to watch is Randall Cobb versus Rogers in the slot. Cobb is cat-quick and Rogers doesn't move as well, so the Packers would be smart to attack there early and often. When Green Bay hosted San Francisco in Week 1, Rodgers went 9-of-9 for 77 yards throwing to Cobb. ... One potential disadvantage for Green Bay's passing game is injuries to Jordy Nelson (ankle) and Jermichael Finley (hamstring), each of whom played limited snaps in the Wild Card Round. Nelson was ineffective aside from two catches on one late first-half drive. Finley will draw Willis and strong safety Donte Whitner in coverage, and their physicality will make life hard on Green Bay's mentally unreliable tight end. ... Greg Jennings enters the Divisional Round as Rodgers' hottest weapon with team highs in receptions (19), receiving yards (226), and touchdowns (3) the past three weeks. Jennings plays both in the slot and outside, roaming around the formation depending on personnel groupings. ... James Jones, who led the NFL in regular season receiving scores (14), was a late-game near-hero in the Week 1 loss to San Francisco, ripping off a 49-yard catch and ten-yard TD in the fourth quarter.
The 49ers finished the season 11-4-1. There is a noticeable trend in their non-wins, as virtually all occurred when the opponent successfully ran on San Francisco's normally stout front. Marshawn Lynch (26-111-1), Ahmad Bradshaw (27-116-1), Steven Jackson (29-101-1), and Adrian Peterson (25-86) each tagged the Niners for consistent chain-moving gains for four quarters; they didn't just rack up stats in clock-killing mode. Scatback DuJuan Harris is serviceable when play design springs him into space, but ultimately Green Bay lacks a runner capable of posing the kinds of problems Lynch, Peterson, S-Jax, and Bradshaw did. ... The final score (30-22) of the Week 1 Pack-Niners game suggests a competitive battle, but that wasn't the case. The 49ers held a 23-7 lead until a pair of fourth-quarter Packers touchdowns, including one on a 75-yard Cobb punt return. Where San Francisco's offense really dominated was in the trenches, overwhelming Green Bay's defense en route to 170 yards and a touchdown on 26 combined carries (6.54 YPC) by Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter, and then-package player Colin Kaepernick. Kaepernick has since replaced Alex Smith at quarterback and Hunter is gone to injured reserve, but Gore is still playing at a high level and will be fresh after a first-round bye. Green Bay finished the regular season a middling 17th in run defense, allowing the seventh most yards per carry in the league (4.53). Offensive line play and run game are the biggest advantages San Francisco has on Green Bay.
Kaepernick has had ups and downs through seven starts, but far more "ups" while exhibiting big-time playmaking ability with a howitzer arm and game-breaking speed. Perhaps most impressive is Kaepernick's resiliency, bouncing back from adversity. After Seattle's defense shut down San Francisco's offense in Week 16, Kaepernick rebounded to light up Arizona's top-five pass defense in the regular season finale for two touchdowns and 276 yards on 28 attempts (9.9 YPA) without a turnover. Quietly, it may have been Kaepernick's best game of the season. The Niners won't struggle to move the ball on Green Bay's defense, and Kaepernick's dual-threat talents will play a big role. ... Michael Crabtree is playing the best football of his life -- coach Jim Harbaugh does an outstanding job of scheming Crabtree open as his featured pass option -- but the Niners could really use an injection of Vernon Davis. Although he compensates somewhat as a butt-kicking blocker, Davis has been a passing-game afterthought since early in the season, clearing 40 receiving yards once over his last 11 games. Green Bay allowed the second-fewest yards and seventh-fewest receptions to tight ends in 2012, so the on-paper matchup suggests breaking out in this particular game won't be easy. ... With Mario Manningham (knee) done for the season, expect to see Randy Moss and raw rookie A.J. Jenkins line up at outside receiver for the majority of Saturday night's game. Crabtree will take on Packers rookie Casey Hayward in the slot, while Moss and Jenkins deal with LCB Tramon Williams and RCB Sam Shields, respectively. A big play out of Moss or Jenkins could be the difference in what projects as a high-scoring, close affair.
Score Prediction: 49ers 34, Packers 30
Saturday's 4:30PM ET Game
Baltimore @ Denver
The Broncos are 13-3 all time in home playoff games. But how big of an effect does Denver's thin air have on opponents, really? "When I played there," ex-Eagles safety Brian Dawkins recalled this week, "... our trainer tried to tell us, 'It's a mind thing. The altitude is a mind thing. Don't think about it.' But when I got out there and we started playing and we got behind -- and that's the key -- it's not a mind thing. It's a lung thing. The lungs don't get enough oxygen." Combine home-field advantage with Peyton Manning's hurry-up offense, and there's reason to believe this game could get out of hand quickly if the Ravens play anything like they did against the Broncos in Week 15. Baltimore was at home for that one, yet still allowed Denver to grab a 17-0 first-half lead en route to a dominant 34-17 victory. ... Manning is masterful at identifying advantageous matchups, and he attacked Ravens RCB Cary Williams relentlessly in the aforementioned meeting. Z receiver Eric Decker was the beneficiary, securing eight passes for 133 yards and a touchdown. On the score, Decker blew by Williams' jam as Manning play-actioned to Knowshon Moreno and found Decker open deep behind Williams from 51 yards out. ... Demaryius Thomas was quiet in the Week 15 matchup (four catches, 13 yards), but he's Manning's hottest receiver with a team-high 16 grabs for 224 yards and two touchdowns in Denver's last two games. In the Ravens' nickel package, special teamer Chykie Brown plays left corner with Corey Graham covering the slot, in the old Lardarius Webb role. Brown is playing extensively only due to injuries and is just as vulnerable as Williams in coverage. Both Denver wideouts can have big Divisional Round games.
Since starting running back Willis McGahee tore his MCL in November, Moreno has admirably stepped into the Joseph Addai role in Manning's offense. An underwhelming talent -- much like Addai -- Moreno has cleared 4.0 yards per carry in just one of his last five starts. But he's an asset in pass protection and has displayed reliable workhorse capability by handling 25 touches per game without a fumble since the McGahee injury. Although Moreno is unlikely to break off big plays in the run game, he is a chain-moving grinder willing to work for hard yards between the tackles. Moreno was the unsung hero of Denver's Week 15 win over Baltimore, heating up the Ravens for 115 yards and a touchdown on 21 attempts (5.48 YPC). ... Slot receiver Brandon Stokley and tight ends Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen are role players in the Manning attack; essentially checkdown receivers for whom plays are rarely designed. Sure-handed Stokley finished the regular season with just two drops on 58 targets. Tamme is a "move" tight end who often aligns in the slot. Dreessen is Denver's in-line tight end. He's an impact run blocker and caught five touchdown passes in 2012, four of which came inside the opponent's ten-yard line.
Perhaps the biggest key to Denver's Week 15 dominance of Baltimore was slot corner Chris Harris' elimination of slot receiver Anquan Boldin. In addition to returning a 98-yard pick six, Harris held Boldin catch-less on six targets, frustrating the veteran to the point that Boldin was penalized for unnecessary roughness in the second half. It was Boldin?s first game without a reception since '05. Look for the Broncos to employ the same strategy this weekend. ... While Harris tracked Boldin on virtually every Week 15 passing down, Denver used Champ Bailey to shadow deep threat Torrey Smith. Before exiting with a third-quarter concussion, Smith managed one catch for 14 yards on three targets. Bailey has been a legit shutdown corner this season, and the Broncos' first-round bye should freshen the 34-year-old's legs for Saturday's game. ... Will Joe Flacco have open receivers in the Divisional Round? The odds appear to be against it. Flacco tends to hold onto the ball too long, make poor decisions, and simply not move the offense when Smith and Boldin don't get separation. Indecisive quarterbacking would be bad news for Baltimore against a Denver defense that led the NFL in sacks and has a pass rusher in Von Miller who is capable of single-handedly ruining an offense. This is a very difficult matchup for the Ravens' pass game.
During the regular season, the Broncos allowed the most touchdowns and seventh most receiving yards in the league to tight ends. If Denver's second-ranked defense has one soft spot, it's coverage over the middle and down the seam. Ravens tight end Dennis Pitta capitalized for seven catches, 125 yards, and two touchdowns in the Week 15 game, securing the first score on a deep seam route and the second with a trio of broken tackles after a quick curl, taking Flacco's short pass 61 yards to the house. Beyond Ray Rice, Pitta is the likeliest Ravens skill-position player to give Denver trouble. ... In large part because Baltimore fell behind so fast, Rice was bottled up and underutilized en route to 41 yards on 15 touches (2.73 average) in the Week 15 Ravens-Broncos game. Playcaller Jim Caldwell has been committed to featuring Rice in Baltimore's two meaningful games since, and he's responded with 275 total yards and a touchdown against the Giants and Colts. As is always the case for running backs, critical to keeping Rice involved is a competitive effort both on the field and scoreboard. The Ravens can't afford to let Denver grab a commanding first-half lead. ... It seems like a long shot, but if Baltimore is the early aggressor in this game, No. 2 back Bernard Pierce has flashed ability to be an X-factor and impact player. Pierce has 387 yards on his last 61 carries (6.34 YPC), and he hasn?t fumbled once on 128 rookie-year touches.
Score Prediction: Broncos 30, Ravens 23
Saturday's 8:00PM ET Game
Green Bay @ San Francisco
49ers defensive end Justin Smith is expected to return for the Divisional Round from a partially torn triceps in his left arm. Smith suffered the tear on Dec. 16 and will be just over three weeks removed from the injury on Saturday night. His effectiveness is a big question mark. Although Smith's 2012 numbers don't jump off the stat sheet, he's a critical puzzle piece on the 49ers' defense, attracting double teams for Aldon Smith to essentially rush quarterbacks unblocked off right end. It's no coincidence that Aldon is sack-less during the nine quarters Justin has missed. The Aldon-Justin tag-team combo is the Niners' primary means of generating pass rush, so there are big implications from this injury as San Francisco attempts to contain scorching-hot Aaron Rodgers. ... Rodgers has completed 102 of his last 149 passes (68.5 percent) for 1,310 yards (8.79 YPA), 11 scores, and no interceptions. He hasn't been picked off in 177 throws. The 49ers' top-four run defense is capable of shutting down Green Bay's DuJuan Harris-led ground game, but putting breaks on Rodgers' aerial assault may be impossible if San Francisco coordinator Vic Fangio can't bring any heat. There may not be an aspect of Pack-Niners that has a greater impact on the game's outcome than Justin Smith's ability or inability to play effectively through his arm tear.
Fangio's defense doesn't mix coverages much. It's a straightaway scheme that jams receivers on the perimeter, is immovable up front, and closes at inside linebacker as if Navorro Bowman and Patrick Willis were shot out of a cannon. Carlos Rogers will cover the slot on all nickel downs, with Chris Culliver at left corner and Tarell Brown on the right. A matchup to watch is Randall Cobb versus Rogers in the slot. Cobb is cat-quick and Rogers doesn't move as well, so the Packers would be smart to attack there early and often. When Green Bay hosted San Francisco in Week 1, Rodgers went 9-of-9 for 77 yards throwing to Cobb. ... One potential disadvantage for Green Bay's passing game is injuries to Jordy Nelson (ankle) and Jermichael Finley (hamstring), each of whom played limited snaps in the Wild Card Round. Nelson was ineffective aside from two catches on one late first-half drive. Finley will draw Willis and strong safety Donte Whitner in coverage, and their physicality will make life hard on Green Bay's mentally unreliable tight end. ... Greg Jennings enters the Divisional Round as Rodgers' hottest weapon with team highs in receptions (19), receiving yards (226), and touchdowns (3) the past three weeks. Jennings plays both in the slot and outside, roaming around the formation depending on personnel groupings. ... James Jones, who led the NFL in regular season receiving scores (14), was a late-game near-hero in the Week 1 loss to San Francisco, ripping off a 49-yard catch and ten-yard TD in the fourth quarter.
The 49ers finished the season 11-4-1. There is a noticeable trend in their non-wins, as virtually all occurred when the opponent successfully ran on San Francisco's normally stout front. Marshawn Lynch (26-111-1), Ahmad Bradshaw (27-116-1), Steven Jackson (29-101-1), and Adrian Peterson (25-86) each tagged the Niners for consistent chain-moving gains for four quarters; they didn't just rack up stats in clock-killing mode. Scatback DuJuan Harris is serviceable when play design springs him into space, but ultimately Green Bay lacks a runner capable of posing the kinds of problems Lynch, Peterson, S-Jax, and Bradshaw did. ... The final score (30-22) of the Week 1 Pack-Niners game suggests a competitive battle, but that wasn't the case. The 49ers held a 23-7 lead until a pair of fourth-quarter Packers touchdowns, including one on a 75-yard Cobb punt return. Where San Francisco's offense really dominated was in the trenches, overwhelming Green Bay's defense en route to 170 yards and a touchdown on 26 combined carries (6.54 YPC) by Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter, and then-package player Colin Kaepernick. Kaepernick has since replaced Alex Smith at quarterback and Hunter is gone to injured reserve, but Gore is still playing at a high level and will be fresh after a first-round bye. Green Bay finished the regular season a middling 17th in run defense, allowing the seventh most yards per carry in the league (4.53). Offensive line play and run game are the biggest advantages San Francisco has on Green Bay.
Kaepernick has had ups and downs through seven starts, but far more "ups" while exhibiting big-time playmaking ability with a howitzer arm and game-breaking speed. Perhaps most impressive is Kaepernick's resiliency, bouncing back from adversity. After Seattle's defense shut down San Francisco's offense in Week 16, Kaepernick rebounded to light up Arizona's top-five pass defense in the regular season finale for two touchdowns and 276 yards on 28 attempts (9.9 YPA) without a turnover. Quietly, it may have been Kaepernick's best game of the season. The Niners won't struggle to move the ball on Green Bay's defense, and Kaepernick's dual-threat talents will play a big role. ... Michael Crabtree is playing the best football of his life -- coach Jim Harbaugh does an outstanding job of scheming Crabtree open as his featured pass option -- but the Niners could really use an injection of Vernon Davis. Although he compensates somewhat as a butt-kicking blocker, Davis has been a passing-game afterthought since early in the season, clearing 40 receiving yards once over his last 11 games. Green Bay allowed the second-fewest yards and seventh-fewest receptions to tight ends in 2012, so the on-paper matchup suggests breaking out in this particular game won't be easy. ... With Mario Manningham (knee) done for the season, expect to see Randy Moss and raw rookie A.J. Jenkins line up at outside receiver for the majority of Saturday night's game. Crabtree will take on Packers rookie Casey Hayward in the slot, while Moss and Jenkins deal with LCB Tramon Williams and RCB Sam Shields, respectively. A big play out of Moss or Jenkins could be the difference in what projects as a high-scoring, close affair.
Score Prediction: 49ers 34, Packers 30
Sunday's 1:00PM ET Game
Seattle @ Atlanta
A primary concern for Seattle's defense in this matchup is generating pressure. The Seahawks lost sack leader Chris Clemons to a season-ending knee injury in last week's win at Washington, and their pass rush was struggling before that. Seattle has managed ten combined sacks in its last eight games, including just three the past three weeks. Matt Ryan is capable of picking apart any defense from a clean pocket. Absorbing only four sacks over the final three regular-season games, Ryan completed 76-of-104 passes (73.1 percent) for 787 yards (7.57 YPA), and an 8:0 TD-to-INT ratio. ... At the same time, working in the Seahawks' favor is the physical corner duo of LCB Richard Sherman and RCB Brandon Browner, who will match up with Roddy White and Julio Jones. Browner limited Redskins go-to receiver Pierre Garcon to 50 scoreless yards on four catches in the Wild Card Round, and no other Washington wideout cleared 30 yards. Based on where they lined up on the field for most of 2012, Jones can expect to square off with Browner often Sunday while Sherman sticks to White. ... Because Seattle fields the premier cornerback tandem in this year's playoffs, it's fair to argue that Pete Carroll's club matches up with Atlanta's pass-first offense better than any team left in the postseason. Tony Gonzalez would seemingly be the Falcons' best way to attack a Seahawks defense that can shut down the perimeter. Perhaps the first-round playoff bye will rejuvenate 36-year-old Gonzalez, but he struggled to get open down the stretch, averaging 44.7 yards over Atlanta's final seven games. He averaged 68.6 in the first nine.
Atlanta is the most disciplined team in the NFL, setting league records this season for penalties accepted and penalty yardage. Mike Smith's club also finished top-five in turnover margin. This team doesn't make many mistakes. ... On the other hand, Smith's playoff history is abominable. He's 0-3 lifetime in the postseason with a combined scoring margin of 102-47. Smith's Falcons have been blown out 48-21 and 24-2 in their last two playoff tries. ... Although the Seahawks' run defense was a bit up and down this season, it shut down the Redskins' No. 1-ranked rush offense for the final three quarters of the Wild Card Round. After allowing 61 first-quarter rushing yards at Washington, the Seahawks settled down and permitted 43 yards over the final three frames. Offensively, rushing offense is Atlanta's weakness. The Falcons finished the season 29th in both rush yards per game (87.3) and yards per carry (3.69). Turning 31 next month, lead back Michael Turner needs outstanding blocking to be sprung for successful runs, and Seattle's defensive team speed is capable of bottling up scatback Jacquizz Rodgers. If the Seahawks' front seven plays as stoutly as it did for most of the Redskins game, it can render Atlanta's offense one dimensional.
There is a perception that Russell Wilson struggles on the road, and that was true early in the season. But he made major strides over the course of 2012, posting a 2:7 TD-to-INT ratio in his initial four away games before improving to 8:1 in the past five. The home-away factor still works in Atlanta's favor, but not nearly to the extent it might have before. ... Despite the improvement of Wilson and recognition he's received as a serious Rookie of the Year contender, the Seahawks' offensive backbone is the run game. Playcaller Darrell Bevell hasn't strayed from it all year. After finishing the season third in rushing offense, Wilson and Marshawn Lynch poured 28 combined attempts for 199 yards (7.11 YPC) and a touchdown on Washington's top-five run defense in the Wild Card victory. Seattle imposes its will on the ground, and it's the one area in which Bevell and Carroll own a decided edge on Atlanta. The Falcons' front seven is easily moved in the run game, ranking 21st in regular-season run defense and 29th in yards per carry allowed (4.80). A poor tackling team, Atlanta surrendered 863 rush yards after contact in 2012, the second highest total in all of football.
Seattle's 24-14 Wild Card win over Washington looks rather convincing on paper, but it could've been much more so. Wilson flat missed two would-be touchdown bombs on throws downfield, and No. 2 tight end Anthony McCoy dropped another potential score. The Seahawks must make good on those kinds of opportunities in order to knock off 13-3 Atlanta. ... Look for Sidney Rice to run most of his pass patterns Sunday against Falcons LCB Asante Samuel, while Golden Tate takes on RCB Dunta Robinson. Atlanta's backend matches up well with Seattle's receivers. Tate's bread and butter is run after catch, and Robinson is arguably the premier tackling cornerback in football. Getting open against Samuel is a struggle in and of itself, and some teams discourage their quarterbacks from challenging him at all because Samuel is such a proficient jumper of routes. Unless one somehow catches a break -- like an Atlanta blown coverage -- neither Rice nor Tate seems likely to have a particularly big game. ... In-line tight end Zach Miller stepped up for a team-high 48 yards on four receptions against the Redskins, while Doug Baldwin and fullback Michael Robinson combined for four more grabs, 62 yards, and a touchdown. Robinson, Baldwin, Miller, and the aforementioned McCoy are complementary players in Bevell's offense, but they are capable of efficient football when opportunities arise. If Rice and Tate struggle to get open, as predicted here, a big play from explosive slot man Baldwin could be the difference in this game.
Score Prediction: Seahawks 24, Falcons 23
Sunday's 4:30PM ET Game
Houston @ New England
Three of this year's Divisional Round games are regular-season rematches. The Pats' Week 14, 42-14 evisceration of the Texans might be most difficult to forget. While the result isn't necessarily indicative of things to come, it seems to have had a lasting effect on the mindset and subsequent performance of Matt Schaub. Whereas Schaub opened the season with a 7.41 yards-per-attempt average and 21:9 TD-to-INT ratio in 12 games before the New England loss, he?s regressed to one touchdown, four interceptions, and a 7.15 YPA in five games since. Schaub has been tentative and hesitant, struggling each time out. A light must suddenly flip on for Schaub if Houston is going to stay competitive on the scoreboard in Foxboro. His recent play suggests the odds are stacked heavily against it. ... The Patriots' defensive coverage strategy appears pretty predictable for this game. They'll shadow Aqib Talib with Andre Johnson while impressive rookie corner Alfonzo Dennard matches up with the Z receiver rotation of Kevin Walter and DeVier Posey. During his funk, Schaub has been all too willing to settle for checkdown-type completions to Owen Daniels, Arian Foster, Garrett Graham, and James Casey. New England figures to be willing to surrender those so long as Johnson doesn't get behind the secondary. The Texans simply don't have enough explosive weapons to keep pace with the Patriots' juggernaut offense unless Houston's defense plays its best game all year and Foster absolutely goes off on the ground.
Bill Belichick has a famous knack for eliminating his opponent's most potent skill-position player, and his defense executed when New England held Foster to 46 yards on 15 runs (3.07 YPC) in Week 14. The Pats played top-nine regular-season run defense, permitting under 4.0 yards per carry, so clogging lanes and setting the edge comes natural to Belichick's group. Even better for the Patriots' chances of limiting Foster's impact would be grabbing an early lead and putting the game in overwhelmed Schaub's hands. ... Run-based and theoretically defensive-minded, the Texans are a rhythm team whose effectiveness is compromised when its rhythm is thwarted. The Pats can pound its enemy into submission with a power-zone run game, spread out defenses and attack college-style, or run the speed-no-huddle, limiting substitutions and tiring out an opponent. There isn't an offense in the league better equipped to throw an adversary off its game and take away its rhythm. From that perspective, this game is a mismatch heavily favoring the Patriots.
The Pats dismantled the Texans in the Week 14 game, and they did it without Rob Gronkowski. Not only is Gronkowski an unstoppable red-zone receiver, his run blocking reached new heights when healthy in 2012. To say Gronk's presence is worth seven points per game would probably be conservative. He's going to be an every-down player in the Divisional Round, and that's great news for Tom Brady and Stevan Ridley. It should worry the heck out of Houston. ... As alluded to in last week's Wild Card Matchups piece, the Texans' most glaring defensive weakness is inside linebacker play. The Bengals made a fruitless attempt to attack coverage-liability ILBs Barrett Ruud and Bradie James by targeting Jermaine Gresham on seven pass plays. Gresham, vastly inferior to Gronk and Aaron Hernandez, generated a pathetic seven yards on those seven targets, dropping three balls. The Pats likely took note of the Bengals' mishaps in their game-plan preparation, and where they occurred on the field. Hernandez, Gronkowski, and slot receiver Wes Welker can make good on the opportunities Gresham and Andy Dalton missed. ... Brady shredded Houston for four touchdowns, no picks, and 296 yards on 35 throws (8.46 YPA) in the aforementioned Week 14 beatdown. Texans slot cornerback Brandon Harris was Brady's primary whipping boy.
Although LE J.J. Watt came away from the Texans-Patriots regular-season game with four tackles, three QB hits, and a forced fumble, the Pats held Watt sack-less and generally neutralized him with double and triple teams. In the meantime, the Texans have failed to find a pass rusher capable of distracting extra attention from Watt. He's been their lone consistently high-impact defender all season long, and New England has displayed an ability to strategize so that Watt doesn't ruin their offense. ... Houston defends inside runners like Stevan Ridley more effectively than backs who get out in space, but Ridley has proven a reliable chain-mover and is sure to have some impact on Sunday's game, even if he doesn't break off any long runs. Ridley may not be the centerpiece of playcaller Josh McDaniels' Divisional Round game plan, but he'll be called on to generate three yards and a cloud of dust and execute in short-yardage and goal-line situations. ... Brandon Lloyd might be the likeliest Patriots pass catcher to draw single coverage against Houston, squaring off with CB Johnathan Joseph on the outside. Quiet for most of the season, Lloyd came on a bit down the stretch and at the very least will occupy the Texans' best cornerback's coverage. Houston's defense is more vulnerable underneath and down the seam.
Score Prediction: Patriots 28, Texans 17
Source: http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/42291/179/matchups-divisional-round
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